Thread: Observation
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Old 6th October 2011, 10:53 AM
beton beton is offline
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I have added the tote strike rate for the same price range. The conclusion that I draw is that it confirms that the Betfair prices are higher. I only went to $5.70 as that was as much as I had printed on my reference sheet. Still you take off commissions and you are behind the 8 ball.

Range -------Number -Wins -S/Rate ---Return ----Tote SR
$0.00 - $2.00 --371 -- 204 --- 55% --$ 353.48 ---50.34%
$2.01 - $3.00 -1,004 -400 --- 40% --$ 1,031.80--33.67%
$3.01 - $4.00 -1,144 - 340--- 30% --$ 1,219.78--25.40%
$4.01 - $5.00 ---671- 131--- 20% ---$ 590.12 --17.06%
$5.01 - $6.00 ---222-- 42 --- 19% ---$ 230.12 --15.60%
$6.01 - $7.00 ---43 ----7 ----16% ---$ 43.42 --
>$7------------- 6 -----1 ----17% ----$ 5.69
--------------3,461 1,125 --- 33% ---$ 3,474.41

The observation that I am making is that my tote analysis has 15% of races occur with the fav at over $4. Your results show on Betfair 27%. On the UK races this seems higher. 13 races out of 31 last night. Thats 42%. One can read into that higher average prices which should mean turning a commission loss into positive territory. Beton
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