Thread: Observation
View Single Post
  #14  
Old 7th October 2011, 11:14 AM
beton beton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default

Bhagwan Thanks.
Shooting from memory in all price ranges the fav is good on Aus racing. IE if a $4 horse was multiplied by its strike rate the return would be even of slightly better then less the TAB commission. Actual odds make it $4.56 horse ($1 bet + $3 gain + $0.555 commission) Backing at BF the same horse would be $4.60 less $0.18 which still creates a slight loss. The only ways to win is increase the price you get or cut out the losers.
The observation that I am making is that the prices for the favs are getting longer in the UK. I cannot see the winning fav ratio changing nor the public getting it wrong. I suspect the public are demanding better odds. Last night 31 races 7 of which qualified at >8 runners and <$4 fav. I did not confirm but about 17 were <8 runners and 7 were >8 runners and >$4 fav. Thats 50%. 4 lost and 3 won giving a very good result.

That 50% is greater than the 10-15% of tote at >$4 and greater than 4Legs summary at 27%. Why I don't but it could be maturing market.

It bears looking and thus I will look. All assistance is welcome. Beton
If the above sounds fuzzy it because the elephant is a bit hard to kickstart this morning.
Reply With Quote