Gday All,

First up thank you to the people who have made favorable mention of my ratings. I know from my point of view I really appreciate the thoughts.... Ok .. now to the meat of the issue..

White Turnip wrote:
My value bet on Sunday was GREIGACIOUS who saluted at 25-1. Everyone seemed to jump off it after a bad race. It beat KABLAMMO in the start prior to that in Canberra. I rated it at 13-2. I had 2 other losses for the day but that more than made up for it.

I write:

I wonder whether you thought Kablammo was a hot horse on the first Tuesday in Nov of last year when it won at Flemington at about 15 bucks... I did I rated it on top, (posted here as well) and I still think he is a class runner and no doubt he will get my cash when he is at a value price.

Now that is all and good, but I didn't see Gregacious as your Value Bet prior to the race, it may have been posted but I haven't seen it..

Here was my top 6 rated horses for the race: they were posted well in advance:

4 $3.7 Indeed I Do
1 $6.5 Spectrum's Image
10 $6.5 Greigacious FIRST - $25.50
7 $11.4 Galactic Queen
2 $11.4 Magic Duck SECOND -
3 $11.4 Not Fussy

I can go on ....
Race 8 04:39 PM
Life & Veteran Members Hcp. Handicap 3yo+ S/C 1 win-ly
11 $4.0 Sam Sung A Song
2 $5.3 Sportsbrat FIRST - $24.40
6 $7.1 Patpong
1 $9.5 Murphy's Blu Boy SECOND -
5 $9.5 Desert Ransom
14 $9.5 Our Jin Mah

To me they are fair value and probably worth skiting about, but you can't keep getting reults like that, eventually you will go broke chasing those 20/1 winners. You need to look for nice overlays. And that is where I think the true value in racing lies, and probably the best formula for making a quid in this game.. A typical example of a great overlay was yesterday at Coffs R1 With Fire Bright winning. A truly great overlay. Way better than Gregacious, Sportsbrat or even Raven Protector. That horse winning makes the day a huge profit day.. That is if you bet to the odds.. Gregacious was about a 4 or 5 X overlay, Raven Protector a 3 X overlay and Sportsbrat a 5X overlay. but this horse at coffs was a 7 x overlay, but we aren't hearing about it because it paid 5 bucks, but I made a great profit from that race, more than from the others mentioned.. AND there were only 4 runners in the race. Ofcourse it isnt always that good, but hell that's the nature of the beast.. :smile:

Coffs Harbour 29 March
Race 1 01:42 PM
Comfort Inn City Centre Hcp. Handicap Open
3 $1.5 Fire Bright FIRST - $5.00
4 $4.7 Planet Lover SECOND -
1 $6.2 Darcy D'Or FOURTH -
5 $8.3 Laminated THIRD








_________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

[ This Message was edited by: xptdriver on 2004-03-30 10:36 ]