I've decided to go for the big win.

The horse I have selected is not in the top few in the experts tips for the race (its not Jimmy Choux, Love Conquers All, Secret Admirer or Kings Rose).

I believe I have a reasonable chance with this horse (15%- 20% confidence level) due to the rail being out 9 metres.

I believe there will only be maybe 1 or 2 other people pick this horse if any at all. This means I could have it racing for me for $16K - $25K. I can't lay that amount on betfair (don't have the funds) but will lay what I can so that even if it loses I will have won something.

I'll update the selection when the tipping comp closes its seleciton period which is at midday.