5th November 2011, 01:49 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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It's a funny thing, I've actually been looking at how under the true odds the horse has been regardless of it winning or losing.
Is a certainty really a $1.04 chance?
A certainty should be a $1.01 chance.
But seeing as nothing is certain, surely in this case $1.10 should be the minimum fair price, especially when you pay commission on winnings.
If she runs to her best she wins as she has today.
But what if something happened just prior to being loaded into the barriers, or in the barriers, or upon release, or another horse breaks down running sideways.
These things happen more often than 1 in a thousand.
What if she gets a stitch, throws a plate, the girth snaps, she shys at seagulls, my point is anything can happen to the horse or the environment and I think $1.04 is ridiculous.
But then again I've seen UK horses trade at $1.04 with a hurdle to jump.
It's fantastic for racing to see her win today, but she's totally unbackable unless you do what Mark did which is the only way to get value out of her.
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