[quote]
On 2004-03-30 11:44, Luckyboy wrote:
xptdriver,

Firstly thanks for supplying your assessed market prices. It is very generous offer you provide.

I write:
No worries I enjoy doing it..

Luckyboy then wrote:
I would like to ask you a question as to what your selection would be based on value if (using your example) the assessed prices versus the actual price (AP) were:

Coffs Harbour 29 March
Race 1 01:42 PM
Comfort Inn City Centre Hcp. Handicap Open
3 $1.5 Fire Bright AP $4.50
4 $4.7 Planet Lover AP $4.50
1 $6.2 Darcy D'Or AP $8.00
5 $8.3 Laminated AP$15.50

This is a typical problem that faces the 'value' punter assessing chance to price. I hope you can shed some of your experienced light here…

Thanks in advance.


Luckyboy

I write:

I appreciate the problem. I have said for a long time that I wont tell people how to bet, that is up to the individual. Your idea of value may be different to mine. You may only take 2 x overs or 3x, where I may bet them all that are over what I reckon they should be.. it's up to the individual.. I supply the prices I reckon they should be,(including the TAB take out) to help the person who has made a selection to work out if they are getting a good price. Whether the person takes the advice is entriely up to them.. In the race above I only backed Fire Bright. Say Planet lover was going off at say 20/1 I woulda had a bit on it as well.. The one thing i will say is that i set the amount of my bet based on my price not the TAB or bookie price.. thats why a horse that i reckon should be 2's on wins at 4's it becomes a magnificent overlay because i have bet it as if it was only $1.50, alternatively had it started at 1.50 it would be going around without my cash and I would likely leave the race alone or scale back my bet on something else.. .. It was one of the rare times where I got it right :smile: I hope that explains things a bit..

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com