30th November 2011, 02:40 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,534
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I thought I would also add that the performance of a ratings method should be considered on its lower prices selections. Anything rated over $20 is hardly worth looking at because its only a 5% chance of winning. If you could get $40 which is a 100% overlay in price but is equivalent to a 2.5% chance. Your essentialy only getting an overlay of 2.5%. This is crazy to bet and is where laying/backing overlays comes unstuck.
At the same time if you take a $2.00 rated horse and you can get $3.00 then you have rated the selection at 50% chance and you have got odds equivalent to a 33% chance. This is a 17% overlay. Thats a lot better in terms of percentage overlay.
I would personally stick to gaining at least a 10% or higher overlay in percetnage terms. Bit for this you need to think chances of winning vs prices which is contrary to how many people think.
MInd you I am not e x p e r t in this and these are just my thoughts.
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