Don't want to seem like I'm arguing, but like to point out, that
the data is not accurate price wise.
When I run systems that I know win laying, they lose using the data, so I'm not sure what's going on there.
I'm comparing actual lay bets with the data, and it's way out.
I'm not knocking UB, but if the prices aren't accurate, it puts people at a disadvantage.
I think you need to be recording either the last traded price or use the Betfair weighted average, or Betfair SP, the markets aren't mature enough if the races don't run exactly on time.
Secondly, it's not all last start winners in the field, it's the first one you come to.
It's also last start 2nds.
Using the criteria <=4 includes multiples.
But for the sake of the argument let's do it that way.
Code:
ALL OF THEM AT TAB PRICES
(that's any TAB #)
01/01/2011-03/12/2011
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 1523 1516
Races Won: 565 1036
S.R./Race: 37.1% 68.3%
Outlay($): 3396.00 3386.00
Return : 2727.90 2872.02
$ Profit : -668.10 -513.98
% P.O.T. : -19.7% -15.2%
Code:
Just using TAB # 1 of qualifiers
Just at TAB prices
SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: SPECIALS_DARKY 01/01/2011-03/12/2011
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 432 427
Races Won: 95 212
S.R./Race: 22.0% 49.6%
Outlay($): 432.00 427.00
Return : 347.20 367.24
$ Profit : -84.80 -59.76
% P.O.T. : -19.6% -14.0%
But if you're laying into better prices and paying commission, it's not going to work, because the fancied one's will kill you on strike rate and the unfancied one's will kill you on price.
Code:
Just using TAB # 1 of qualifiers
Just at TAB prices, WHEN THEY ARE FAVOURITE
01/01/2011-03/12/2011
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 172 169
Races Won: 61 107
S.R./Race: 35.5% 63.3%
Outlay($): 172.00 169.00
Return : 136.40 142.90
$ Profit : -35.60 -26.10
% P.O.T. : -20.7% -15.4%
The strike rate is better than just favourite.
Here are all possible bets today, will use BFSP as the tally...
Code:
DARKY: 03/12/2011 WAGGA
R 6 # 2 192x HEAD OVER
DARKY: 03/12/2011 TOOWOOMBA
R 1 # 6 67x1 CHARMING BAY
R 3 # 2 2 SAVAGE
DARKY: 03/12/2011 SCONE
R 7 # 5 421x MAGASIN
DARKY: 03/12/2011 MORPHETTVILLE
AR 2 # 2 1241 IMPERIAL FURY
AR 8 # 1 25x2 BIT OF A DUDE
DARKY: 03/12/2011 GOLD COAST
R 3 # 4 25x2 QUIZETTE
DARKY: 03/12/2011 EAGLE FARM
R 1 # 1 331 OPTIONALITY
R 5 # 1 11x2 ROCKET TO GLORY
DARKY: 03/12/2011 CRANBOURNE
R 3 # 2 3432 LITTLE HOPE
DARKY: 03/12/2011 ASCOT
R 1 # 2 16x2 DE LATTE
R 4 # 3 2162 THE ENTOURAGE