3rd December 2011, 12:26 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Here are the results when laying the field using UB's prices to demonstrate:
There were 38142 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.
There were 38142 selections for the System
There were 34258 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 89.82%
You had to pay out $42188.79 but brought in $36234.9 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $-5953.89 or a percentage profit/loss of -15.61%
I'm afraid that is way way out.
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Chrome,
I use worst betfair price on offer 10 secs to jump. So if your betting its the bet side and if your laying its the lay side. I only include prices from races which are 95% market percentage. The difference is mainly due to the longer shots that get up. You can have a discrepancy of $100 - $600. If you were backing the site uses the $100 if you were laying it uses the $600. Betfair SP might make it somewhere closer to the $100 from what I have seen. This can make a huge difference to the return. It also takes into account commission ( but I admit there is a flaw in that it doesn't take into account losses in the same race). So if you assume 5% of that loss is always commission, you are only losing 10% on the worst prices.
Looking at the back vs lay prices :
Backing returned : $35660.44
Laying returned : $42188.79
There is a 7K difference in the odds and if you layed at the lower odds you would actually be in profit. It all depends on the odds you get so I always take into account worst case for system tests.
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