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Old 18th December 2011, 07:30 AM
aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
I always have a problem when folk start comparing horse racing to flipping a coin.

I feel that's a different thing altogether .
e.g. coins dont have variable odds or field sizes.


when you stop and start at artificial intervals you may as well be flipping a coin with THAT element of your decision - that overall decision being to bet on the animal or not.

so what was once straight forward - "well there's my selections that i will wager on" - has now become a 2 part decision -
decision 1 : what are my selections
decision 2 :whether i back them or not becomes dependant on some other random event - like whether i win with with earlier selections

decision 2 IMHO is akin to flipping a coin.
all things being equal why should selection 5 be inferior to selection 2.
by stopping early we are inferring that it is because selection 2 or anything above the stop point must have collected enough to make a profit




Not to be confused with variable odds or field sizes that you mention - totally, totally different discussion and as far as I can recall so far not raised seriously by anybody else in this thread so far.


cheers

aussie
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