18th December 2011, 02:12 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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10 races
Your pick may win all of them.
Your pick may win some of them.
Your pick may win none of them.
Whatever the strike rate, any of the above can be true.
Stop at a winner in the above scenarios:
You lose profit by stopping
You are square by stopping.
You lose by not stopping because there was no winner.
In other words, under the scenario your pick may win some of them, it looks better to stop, and usually scenario 2 will be the norm.
It's the outliers that kill you because, you have given away profit to compensate when stopping when they all win.
Hence there is absolutely no way you will make up the losses when they all lose.
It's another furphy produced by the mind.
One tends to remember how many times you were in front and then ended up losing.
One doesn't remember the times every one of them lost, because they happen less often.
There are only two circumstances where stopping is advantageous.
1) there are discipline or chasing problems.
2) your edge is actually in the earlier races, whether recognised or not.
It's quite simple to simulate this in excel via sorting of results.
It's also a bit like trading ticks on Betfair, one tick a day for 30 days, on the 31st day there is a late scratching and the market moves wildly in the opposite direction, you lose 40 ticks!
For thirty days you feel like stopping is the thing to do, on the 31st day...you feel sick.
I know it's not the same as betting, but the principle is the same.
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