
26th December 2011, 07:57 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
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Sort of gone off topic a little but we now have Darkydog & Bernie as unable to find any long term winning system. Darkydogs systems, of which there have been hundreds postd on here, are ALL form or ratings based. Darkydog has been following the races for a long time and has been a proponent of ratings, LSW etc, etc. Also one other poster from long, long ago called crash, who seemed to have an extensive knowledge of handicapping, admitted to losing.
Can't understand why you wouldn't change tack after a while. My base rule of no-form is looking good. Can't say more than that 'coz this is a general systems "discussion" and any claims of success will be howled down.
I would suggest, just for the purposes of discussion that your first rule for any system should be "non-form based". There's absolutely no point having your first rule as Must have been placed no worse than 4th in it's past four runs. Reason being is that 1) Your brain is continually being wired to stats in a world where the unknown frequently takes charge, and throwing a blanket of stats over individual animals suggests they're all the same, which they're not and 2) It closes your mind and limits the possibilities of exploring other areas and 3) You've just ruled out 95% of the horses running on the day and 4) You are really limited to what other systems you can attach to the statistically based first rule.
If you have to ask what a "non-form based" rule (other than the usual M, S B, A) I rest my case. For those who've been unsuccessful try changing your thinking. Why persist if it's not working? Don't want to sound smug, but why would you keep banging your head against a brick wall.
Nearly all systems on here start with the obligatory M, S, B, A BUT NOT country tracks ..... WHY? There's as big a difference between the quality of Metro summer racing and the Spring Carnival as there is between the quality of Metro summer racing and country tracks. How does winter racing stack up against the Spring Carnival? I don't think I've ever seen a discussion on here about breaking your systems up to suit the season, the better horses, the strugglers depending on what time of year it is. I don't believe you can run one system and ask it to be successful all year.
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