4th January 2012, 09:15 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,429
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Place Betting Question.
If a horse is $1.50 a place, it has a 66.67% chance of running a place.
Anyone like to guess what chance it has of running third?
Reason I ask, is I noticed that Betfair pay three place dividends on late scratchings in fields of 8 runners.
Meaning the bookies pay 2 place dividends and the Tote pays three.
It was $1.50 on Betfair and around $2.00 with the bookies.
So if I arb the horse, if it loses I win nothing, but lose nothing either.
If it runs first or second I win the arb.
If it runs third, I lose my stake.
For a $10 stake I win $5 or lose $10 (if it runs third), or breakeven.
If it runs third 33.33% of the time, I breakeven.
Any more I lose, any less I win.
My guess is that it runs third 22.22% of the time, meaning I have to win.
But my probabilities could be wrong.
Surely it can't be that simple, or maybe it is because the scenario doesn't happen often enough.
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