Thanks UB, seems I am making life more difficult than need be for myself.
I understand, the odds of placing first are determined by the win odds and then divide the remaining odds for second and third.
I had not considered this aspect.
However, the further permutations are not known until the race is over.
Also, I need to find out the odds of running third.
According to your examples, I'm always going to be ahead of 33.33%.
I need it to run third less than 33.33% of the time.
But as always, the details are overkill. I have approached it wrong from the beginning.
I can simply lay the field with Betfair and back the field with the bookie.
This reflects that I cannot win!
Although the odds say I can win more than lose.
Example:
I back the field and lay the field.
4 out of 7 runners I breakeven.
First and second, I win $5.00 as per my example.
Third, I lose $10.00
Result breakeven
