8th January 2012, 06:25 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,437
|
|
To address Mark's observations,
I don't think many will take advantage or for that matter should take advantage as they are only raw stats. The picture changes somewhat when adjusting for certain other reasons.
For example, field sizes, and jumps races are often the first race in winter.
Class races are usually later as well, so more often open events price wise.
Note the win %, place % and POT all decrease accordingly, not denoting overbet horses, but denoting average field size.
In general, increase in average field size relates to increase in average price, so naturally the loss percentage will increase.
Due to the favourite longshot bias, the longer the favourite price, the more percentage you lose. The shorter the price of the favourite, the less percentage you lose.
These are general comments only, obviously there are specific differences, but I certainly wouldn't be rushing out to back the favourite in a maiden in field size of 4, when I can bet on a good horse with good form in a Group One race in a field of 4, that just happens to be race 7.
Just my thoughts.
|