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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
This reinforces the fact that although it should be neutral, Betfair favours backers in almost all areas.
Layers are pushing it up a hill.
Backers are starting off with an advantage and are further advantaged by market rules.
Layers start off disadvantaged and are further disadvantaged by market rules.
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I'm going to add to my past post.
The above is a generalisation, and that generalisation is true most of the time and for most of the field.
However, of late, I have been laying solidly supported runners at and below bookmaker SP!
I first noticed a trend a while ago and did some experimentation.
It seems backers and layers are obsessed with fixed odds displayed when it comes to heavily backed horses.
There is enough meat on the bone at bookie SP to make an earn, anything below that is is raw profit.
Fixed odds are constantly fluctuating as bookies automatically try to cover themselves by website algorithm.
There is a distinct advantage to this automation.
In the flurry to get on to what looks like a predictable further plunge in odds, Betfairians are chasing the fixed odds, but appear to be oblivious to the actual track SP.
For this approach, forget Betfair SP, as the opportunity passes us by, we miss the very large fluctuations and corrections.
Here are some some examples from yesterday:
Coffs Harbour R3 Mr Giggles SP $4.40 Fixed $3.80
Coffs Harbour R6 Little Johnie SP $4.00 Fixed $3.50
Kyneton R2 Tsar Of Russia SP $3.20 Fixed $3.10 (WON)
Kyneton R4 Victoria Bluebird SP $4.20 Fixed $4.00
Kyneton R5 Amber Grey SP $3.90 Fixed $3.60
Kyneton R6 Friend Indeed SP $5.00 Fixed $4.80
Kyneton R6 Bonny Jeunesse SP $6.50 Fixed $4.80
Kyneton R7 Tommy Two SP $5.50 Fixed $5.00
Kyneton R8 Sol Brillante SP $11.00 Fixed $9.50
Kyneton R8 Tough Love SP $5.50 Fixed $5.00
Only two meetings listed, only one horse of all those was a winner (the shortest price). Every horse traded at below SP in the last 5 minutes of betting on Betfair, some traded significantly below, and a couple well below fixed odds.
Instant bookie, without having to lay off, without laying above sp or getting caught out by late steamers.
In fact in most cases, after 5% commission ( I multiplied each price by 1.05), I was doing just as well as the bookies on track, but I can control my liability.
Happy New Year!!!