11th January 2012, 06:05 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by woof43
Exactly..
All your first steps are, is to categorize the Fav and how strong or the gap over the 2nd fav. and to find correlations in the odds to finished odds nothing more or nothing less.
You will be testing as many variables (in formguides or tipsheets) as possible to find ones with a correlation and know which ones don't.
I didn't tell you, but once you find a variable or combination, you would then breakdown this down into subsets of races based on the fav odds <3.00 etc.
Of course there is holes in what I have been explaining, the above approach is to provide very good first order approximation to those precious crowd odds.
Just with the above information I'm able to provide trifecta combinations that provide positive expectations for each race catergory.
Once you have completed the above your then ready to move onto actually using your own handicapping in "cluster analysis".
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Woof,
I think Im starting to understand. Let me paraphrase this to check I have this right.
The first thing I do is find variables which give me an understnading of the crowd odds. Once I find variables (such as barrier) which give an approximation of the crwod odds based on that variable I think start to categorise the actual results of any type of category. This could be last start winners, favs under $3 , top rated horse by tatts, top tipster selection, etc. It might even be more specific categories such as track/barrier combinations.
Once I have these two things I plot them on a scatter plot. By doing this with two different colour sets (say red and blue) I will visually be able to see clusters of where certain categories do deviate from the expected odd distribution.
Based on this clustering I should be able to find profitable situations that long term will be profitable ?
Is this right ?
If it is this still feels like backfitting but I guess your generalising the backfitted rules rather then being specific.
Of course I might have taken this the wrong way completely. Can you tell me if I am on the right path or if I have gone walking off on my own path again.
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