Between May & Aug, i ran some systems to find lay bets and made an 18% profit on these selections. But in the back of my mind was sometimes i knew i was laying very good winning chances, sometimes i felt i was laying horses over their true odds.

So between Aug & Nov, carnival time when I have more motivated to study form, i came up with 53 form-based lays & only 4 won. Profit was 67.5%. Expected winners were 8.85. Obviously too short an example to run a meaninful chi test score.

Bottom line is though your confidence is higher when you think you have a legitimate reason for laying a horse when its under the odds, as opposed to mechanical selections. I personally prefer this method. Dare I say it, i still like to 'study the form', even if certain people here question its validity.

Beats mechanical selections hands down, just as you said, time consuming!