The problem with following TAB fluctuations is this:

1. Many bookies lay bets off on the tote when the odds are over the S/P. This gives a false reflection of betting trends. Let's say I am a bookie offering 10/1 on a selection. The TAB price is 16/1....not that uncommon. Someone idles up to me with $500 each way. Two minutes before the jump the 16/1 tote odd drifts from $16.00 to $16.80. The bookie lays off at least part of that $500 bet so if it wins he only has to payout at 10/1 and pockets the rest. Not bad eh?
Seen it done in disguise with a runner many many times over.

2. Most activity is in the final two minutes before the jump and not updated until just after the jump. The TAB computer system takes quite a few seconds to finally calculate the pools and final dividends.

3. Now if we are talking S/P that's a whole different story. You need to have a bookie who is willing to give you the firmers and betting trends. Or you have to be oncourse to track it yourself.

4. In following the smart money on the TAB you are losing all value and usually getting under the real price/chance about the horse.
Try following the drifters on the TAB as the average punter goes for the favorite. There is a lot of good value on the tote leaving out the favorite. If you consider the favorite to be a good thing, then either bet with a bookie or keep out of the race.

My advice only, and hope it helps.

P.S. mrmagic - very good and important point. Bookies do lay off to other bookies. The oldest trick in the book is to accept your $10,000 bet - AND NOT FIRM your odds, giving you time to lay off at decent odds to other bookies. Only after the layoff (within a few seconds), you firm the odds to ensure the other guys still offer as good or better than your price.

Another interesting point is to look at the favorites that won on the TAB and compare the final price with the S/P, amazing how little value you get on the TAB compared to S/P.


[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-04 14:02 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-04 14:04 ]