24th January 2012, 10:09 AM
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Member
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 204
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Even if you did apply the rules, you'd need at least 10 times the sample size to have any real confidence about it repeating.
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Agree with you there CP. Or maybe 50 times the sample size.
I've tried to explain this before but everyone thought I was on drugs. Still, I'll have another go....... When backfitting systems it is impossible (almost then) to isolate a particular input factor. You may think you are adding only "first up last start" runners for example. But in fact within that group you have a million other factors that may or may not be having an input on the result.
Thus when you add or subtract any single input it actually affects the other input factors.....There, clear as a bell
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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"
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