10th April 2004, 09:10 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Canberra
Posts: 26
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Quote:
NEW Rules:
1. Sat. metro
2. Must have 4 starts or more from a spell with the last 4 starts adding up to no more than 9 [0=10] and contain at least 1 win.
3. Pre-post odds of no more than $9 and not less than $4.50 SP
4. Barrier position no more than No.9
5. Where there are 2 selections or more, back the one with the shortest odds [if same odds, back the lowest barrier No.].
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This gives a Strike rate of 14.9% and LOT of -10.7% over 13 yrs.
If you adjust to Barrier <=6 and SP <=$4.50
then you get SR 32.3% and LOT -5.7%
In this latter case yr largely dealing with favourites, the first case (because of the $4.50 - $9.00 price bracket) is probably excluding many shorty winners.
What it does demonstrate is that you can't get rid of the LOT by playing with the acceptable SP because of the inverse ratio between SR and return.
rgds |