This month I’m going to test out two systems and see how they go. If they fall over BIG TIME in the first few days or week I’ll stop testing them. I know the forum curse will strike for sure but hopefully we can ride it out.
BACKING FAVOURITES $2 AND UNDER 
The first system for testing is backing the first fave if it is $2 and under. This will be for the gallops and trots.
UB’s system tester has the following stats for the gallops since August 2011:
There were 53754 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.
There were 560 selections for the System
There were 324 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 57.86%
There were $540.75 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-19.25 or a percentage profit/loss of -3.44%
So a $19 loss in 6 months.
The twist I will be using is that I will use 100% of the profit of the previous bet onto the base stake for the next bet.
For example - Say $1 stake. The first bet will be $1 at say $1.80 fave. It wins making me a profit of $0.80. This means the stake for the next bet is $1.80 ($1 stake + 80c profit). The next fave is $1.70. If this wins the profit will be $1.26 (win bet $3.06-stake of $1.80). This means that the next bet will be $1.26 plus the base stake of $1 making it $2.26.
It is basically a 2 x parlay/all up bet. This way when a loss occurs (and we have some wins in the bank) then we will end up with more profit than betting level stakes – well that’s the theory anyway. I’m sure some of you can shoot me down here but we’ll see what happens.
I’ve only tested it for the last few days and it has been a bit up and down but overall in profit +3.98, -1.41, +14.23, -5.75, +5.87 for a total of +16.92 units.
I will not have a profit stop but I will have a stop loss of say –6 units. I will adjust the stop up (if it’s in profit) to 6 units behind the total after a loss. I won’t use a pure trailing stop as, if a big bet loses, I would be stopped out however I would of only lost 1 unit in that case.
I will be betting for real at the minimum $5 betfair amount (as I reckon I’ll get in trouble pretty soon if I keep up the $1 bets). This makes the stop loss $30. I can only really afford to throw about $100 at this (that’s about 3 losing days), which is not much, but as I’ve had many bad experiences with system betting I don’t want to spend too much on it (I just want to find something that works automatically).
I hope it makes sense. I will list my other system for testing on another post.