Been doing some thinking about target betting today.
Can someone confirm my numbers here.

If you have a 25% strike rate, your chances of striking a winner within 15 bets is 98.89%, is that figure correct?

Secondly, if you were targetting $10 a series at an average dividend of 3.5, your total outlay for 13 losing bets would be $783.71.

So with a 25% and $3.50 you have a LOT of 12.5%

Can someone check those numbers? If they are correct I will continue with a theory here, which if I'm being honest, there must be some flaws in, but on a spreadsheet the numbers seem to crunch nicely which doesnt quite compute in my head.