I would suggest they would be overbet if they were in a similar race, similar distance, not too harshly treated at the weights etc ..... However, those that are a LSW and maybe are rising in class and distance might be worthy of a look. I'm assuming that the experts would place great emphasis on the class of the race the LSW contested and dismiss it if it's going up in class too much. So, maybe that's true if the nag has had say 5 runs in this time, but what about the one's that have only had a couple.

Everyone 'knows' that those who've had two wins in a row are 'overbet' ..... don't they ????? Well, I'm not so sure !!!