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Originally Posted by Barny
$783.71 is a lot of money to put on a horse that is a 2-1/2 to one chance of winning. Do I assume that this bet is because you're losing $2,732.98 and you're trying to get those losses back PLUS be $10 in front ?? If so, you taking 273 to one ON (in the RED) about a 5/2 shot.
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$783 would be the total you'd be out of pocket if you lost on the 13th bet, the 13th bet would be around $226 by my calculations.
If those original figures are correct that I posted re the SR and chance of a winner in 15 bets, it seems to make a profit in theory IF for example.
You wait for two loosers before commencing betting and then start your series. You would therefore expect a winner 98.9% of the time before you stopped on bet 13. So 98.9 series out of 100 would win $10, and 1.11 series out of 100 you would blow $783.
So winning would be:
$989 (98.9*10)
Losses
869 (1.11*783)
Therefore profit of $120.......
Obviously there is alot of assumption there with the dividends, but long term if your av divi is 3.5, it should in theory work out, you might have one series where you lose more that 869, and some series where you lose less.......
Thats what my spreadsheet seems to suggest, it doesnt seem right to me though, as it goes against everything I've ever thought about punting.......its just that blog got me thinking.
Wether it actually worked in practice is another story altogether.