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14th February 2012, 08:31 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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I feel one has to ask the question first of.
Do I like profit
OR
Do I like punting heaps & heaps of races more.
That's what hobby punters like to do.
One has to ask the question of , how many winners one would I be satisfied with.
One would have to know their average SR of the method being used.
Example.
Say our method averages 23% SR
And you are happy to hit say 8 winners on the day.
That means one would be betting approx 35 races to hit objective based on 23%
Many professional punters would say that's too many because there is a greater chance of things to go wrong on the day.
Try & keep in mind that punting for profit is not an exact science.
Therefore less can often be best.
How many times have you seen one of those days that starts off bad & just gets worse from there.
If one were only targeting 1=6 horses on the day , the damage is contained.
Or a day where you hit 3 winners out of 5 races now in good profit , then give it all back and some, through out the day.
If one does wish to go the 35 races , then make sure you stop on the 35th bet, because that's what one was budgeting on doing.
Stopping is always hard to do , especially when we feel the winners should all be flooding through real soon after a couple of siccesses.
Many professional punters target 3-6 runners a day.
And sometimes the end up having no bets because they could not get the price they had in mind.
I feel a punter should first say , how much am I prepared to risk on the day and be less concerned about how much one is going to make , because it has not happened yet.
But you do have a say on how much the Liability is going to be, before we even start & stick to it.
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Heres a technique for lay betting.
100 Bet Technique
Say you have a lay method that has proved itself on many past results & now you wish to punt real money.
This technique requires the punter to Lay bet 100 races.
No recovery plans.
This can be over 4 days+ if need be .
But what one will observe is that there will be a number of successes then a clump going against us , then more successes .
So after 100 bets we should be in profit or small loss.
It smooths out the ups & downs more, doing it this way.
And you already know its a long haul approach which usually sits a lot more comfortable with most Lay punters.
I feel it can take a lot of the anxiety that comes with Lay betting because we are taking the big picture view of 100 bets.
Before one does this , its a strong idea to know one's max liability could be on a single race , then multiply this figure x 30
Example
Say the max price we are going to accept is 6.00 betting say $5 level stakes
$5 x 5/1 (6.00) 25.00 max Liab
25.00 x 30 = Bank $750 needed.
This 100 races approach works very well on most reasonable Lay methods.
You will either be in profit or suffer a small loss.
Best of all , one feels they can breath more freely with this more relaxed approach, because it tends to ride out the highs & lows.
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Cheers.
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