I recently read a newspaper article about a punter who bets millions each week at several Australian TABs, mainly with the Tasmanian TAB, or at least this is where the information for the article came from (and it was I believe originally his home state). He also punts with overseas totes. This punter has staff working for him. He says that he uses probabilities based on form methods that are well known and freely available. He makes a massive income and is quite wealthy from his punting. I assume he bets according to the Woolworth's principle and has high turnover with small profit margins. Someone else employed an actuary to try to replicate his approach but without success. He makes a point of being discreet about his wealth, rather than being a traditional flamboyant punter.

The point relevant to this thread is that he has a successful system which is based on sound form analysis (ratings), and calculation of the chances of horses (odds). He has obviously worked out a good algorithm to decide where to make his cut off point in the ratings so as to make an edge in his favour.

He says he has made errors, some bad. For example, he bet against Makybe Diva to loose her last Melbourne Cup. His excuse was that he laid his bet before they watered the track!

I have two issues with his punting. Firstly, he has a direct computer connection with the TAB and he bets at the last minute, which makes it very difficult for ordinary punters to assess the market for value. Secondly, because he is a big bettor he gets incentives which amount to a reduced percentage of the take out, which ordinary punters do not.

Anyway, for this thread it seems a successful system in the long haul needs good analysis of each horse's chances plus a willingness to take a small POT, and of course a little help from the TAB.