Thread: Systems Fear
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Old 1st March 2012, 05:41 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Seeing as you asked, I don't mind putting it up here.
I just didn't want to hijack the thread.

Market percentages at SP have tightened up quite significantly over recent months.
I think a few sharp minds cottoned on and now the margins at the shortest and longest ends of the market are much closer to zero.
It's the middle ground where the odds are still very very good (for laying).
So SP is still profitable but tightened up for me.

As an example average SP market percentage is now 100.58% a far cry from the 103% two years ago
This includes the variances of 104% or better and 96% and worse.

This is why I'm somewhat amazed at the results you got, although I realise you are creating your own markets rather than betting into an SP market.

My strategy would be more profitable laying those under $3.00 to payout $100 and those over $11.00 to payout $100 and anything between to payout say $120 or perhaps more.

If I were to simply lay the field to fixed liability of say $30.00 (the minimum)
I have turned over close to $730,000 for a profit of $3,550 or 0.49% before commission
This is vastly different to the previous years.

But again, when things like this happen, something else has to give, and give it does, better than laying the entire field ever was (for me).
That's about as much as I can say about the actual strategy.

The rollercoaster has been something that has concerned me for quite some time, it's not the results, it's the inability to utilise a bigger percentage of the bank afraid of those dreaded runs where every fancied or second fancied horse gets up in Aus, then UK, then USA for a day.
It happens often enough, that I cannot risk higher liability than my set percentage of bank.
The greatest damage comes from those odds on favourites that get on a run of success. They are still profitable to lay, but can really do some damage when they're hot.
So I simply bet back @ SP anything odds on for a fixed amount.
This only reduces the liability, but if it gets rolled I still make money.
If it wins I lose less money.
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