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Old 25th March 2012, 07:05 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,425
Default Lay value vs Market Percentage

Not sure how this will format but here goes:

Code:
Pos Barrier Margin Horse Age Weight Gear Jockey Trainer In-play price SPs and Advantage High Low BSP Tote +/− Place 1 (3) Riata Special 3 56 bL Adrian A. Ramos James J. Gonzales, Ii - - 21.08 10.40 103% - 2 (9) nk Kool Kue Country 3 56 bL Esgar Ramirez Roberto Sanchez - - 5.60 7 −27% - 3 (10) 2 Full Battle Rattle 3 56.5 bL Freddie L. Martinez Danny Urista - - 14.50 9.60 49% - 4 (7) ns Champions League 3 56.5 bL Antonio L. Escareno Juan M. Esquivel - - 25 5.60 396% - 5 (4) hd Kl Wagon Master 3 56 bL Jaime Parga Leos Harvey Baeza - - 2.88 5.20 −57% - 6 (2) ¾ Country Kissin Chick 3 56 bL Macario Rodriguez Martin N. Perez - - 20 8.70 134% - 7 (5) hd Twister In Three D 3 56.5 bL Oscar Hernandez Salvador R. Soto - - 42 8.80 399% - 8 (8) 1½ Run Dj Run 3 56 b Oscar Ortega D. David Meridyth - - 42 10.20 323% - 9 (1) ½ Action Dasher 3 56 L Flavio Lozano Larry Chavez - - 25 9.30 175% - 10 (6) nk Thatsa Fire Chick 3 56 bL Tanner Thedford Jackie E. Riddle - - 55.07 10.80 424% - 10 Ran, Winning Time: 17.16s Betfair SP Overround/Underround: 84%


or

Code:
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/240312/Sunland_Park-US-SUN/1310


This is a prime example how an 84% market can still favour a layer.

The two favourites were a total of 84% less than the tote price!
If one is laying to payout the same figure on all horses in the market, one loses a massive 16% of the total outlay.

If one lays to liability, the greatest liability is on the first then second favourites, the rest should be winners. Given that they are 84% less than tote price, you cannot help but win.

As I lay only part of the field, which means I am laying the favourites and backing the longshots (effectively), I got 103% better than the tote price on the winner plus 84% less than the tote on the losers.

This is not a one off....

Code:
Here is the reverse, a 184% market: http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/240312/Sunland_Park-US-SUN/1400


But there is still huge value both ways.
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