HI Bhagwan,
thanks for your input on this.

It is an interesting challenge to target - I am of the opinion that if you identify & eliminate the favorites most likely to fall over from the equation, you substantially increase or load your own SR. This assumes that one has a consistent system of shortlisting the best chances, of course?

Can you provide your workings for how you get to 33.5%+?

I would have thought that if I successfully eliminate one of the top favorites at least 2/3rds of the time, then the probability of the remaining favorite winning is closer to 50%.

I am unable to substantiate the hypothesis however as my probability maths is a little rusty!

cheers LG