When taking a systematic approach to the form, I like to begin with what I feel is the classiest horse in the race and apparently currently out of form and ask a a few simple questions?
1/ Has it been unlucky last few runs? (check Stewards report)
2/ Was the racing surface/track unsuitable?
3/ Are there any significant gear changes? e.g. Blinkers back on, when that has proved a winning ploy in the past etc.
4/ Top jockey/winning jockey getting on?
If the answer is no to all 4 questions, move on. If there is a yes in there, mark the horse down for further scrutiny.
- A simple value play idea from here if you like the horse:
Take it's win %age, distance %age and %age in the going and add them up:
20 career starts
4 wins +
5 distance starts
2 wins +
10 in the going for
4 wins.
20 + 5 + 10 =35
Then divide the starts by the wins
35 / (4 + 2 + 4)
10= $3.5
For value, times this by 1.2 so $3.5 x 1.2 =
$4.20
This is your acceptable price.
Using this technique, you'll find many suitable opportunities for value. Probably best to aim at the horses with 20-40 starts for more consistent data.
The Schmile
*Please if any magazine writers out there wish to print this in any shape or form, be kind enough to contact me first.
