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Originally Posted by Barny
Interesting about Rasberries, even the trainer was sus eh? The one bad run (unexplained bad run) includes the impossible barrier, poor track conditions etcx, etc, etc. I do understand that it can be factored into the market, but I'm not good enough to know when. What I do know is that some nags can be enormous odds when there's ONE black mark against them.
Tks heaps
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You could maybe look at the strike rate of those who have the 'one bad run' factor and add 2-4 points (or whatever you deem appropriate) to your acceptable price.
The essence of any good system, in the end, is picking horses that run better than their market price says they're entitled to.
I had a couple of nice dutch plays Wednesday picking favourites that I deemed had little or no chance of scoring, at skinny odds. The horses in question were California Storm and a Gai Waterhouse runner Eravana. Both were coming off weak maiden wins and meeting seasoned gallopers of reasonable quality. They didn't even place.
California storm's one and only win looked good but it beat nothing, the 2nd horse being professional placegetter.
Eravana won a maiden first-up after 1 and a half years off the scene and again there was no form to speak of behind it. The winner Zakynthos Imprintz had run every race last prep in Saturday grade and come 2nd by 1 length before a spell. Its' price was ridiculously good.
This is another angle to try when developing a value system, spot the weak favourite.
I hope my ideas are getting the grey matter going. I'm off to catch a plane to Perth, so I'll most likely be back on board tomorrow.
Best of luck with it Barney!!
The Schmile