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Old 7th April 2012, 10:07 AM
moeee moeee is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
Default Overlayed Greyhounds

If its about finding Overlays , where would you look?

Could it be the Favourite?
The Favourite , the animal that everyone wants to back.
The animal that most likely has all the available data pointing to it winning.
Could it be the Favourite?
I think not.
In fact , if you were looking to LAY an animal , then amongst the Favourites would the most likely contenders be found.
The more data available about an animal , then the more likely that that animal is either at the correct Odds , or has been overbet.

How about this.
If given 100 Even money Favourites , is it an easy task to eliminate 50 of these Favourites without throwing away more than 25 Winners?
I reckon I could do it , but I don't know if I could well enough to make a Profit.

Then there is the other choice of say $5 shots.
If we had 100 of these runners , could we do as well or better than with the Even Money Group?
To do as well , means we need to be able to eliminate 50 runners without eliminating more than 10 Winners.
Again , I reckon I could do it , but still not well enough to make a Profit.
But that is if the $5 shots were all in different Races.

BUT HERE'S THE THING.
With the Even Money Chances , these are more than likely in different Races.
And each of them will be at Even Money , because a lot better judges than I have made them so.
BUT , with the $5 shots , there is often 2 or even 3 animals , and not unusual to find 4 in the same race.
So what is happening here , is that those a lot better judges than me are having doubts.
And when there is doubt , there is the potential to get it wrong.

I'm gonna have a play in this thread making suggestions as to where the Overlay might be found.
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