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10th April 2012, 04:55 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 245
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Thanks for your reply Kumite, which site/s give you this. I feel that the strongest one single bit of form is the tempo of the race. I've been analysing sectional times for about 5 years now, and it's the only way I seem to be able to come out ahead. I've got a spreadsheet with a lot of factors built into it which I copy and paste the sectional times from Sydney and Melbourne meetings after each saturday and watch the replays at the same time.
Take Metal Bender who won on saturday paying $16. Previous start ran 3rd at Rosehill over 1300m running second last all the way, and come home in 33.91/22.42 in a very slowly run race. If it was a fast run race that would be expected, but certainly not in a slowly run race. These don't happen often, but they do now and then.
Doing this allows me to put horses into my bb to back next start. But if certain form was available appertaining to say how many lengths a horse was off the leader at the 600, and things like this, I feel one could rate the entire field based on their last start. I don't know if this would even be feasible even if it could be done.
But like I said I do reckon tempo is the strongest key to a race. I had a break from this for some months, got back into it in February, have had 84 bets since then for an overall S/R of 33%, a race S/R of 48% (more than one bet in some races) and a POT of 63%.
Food for thought,
Regards, Paul
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