The odds are real, but it's what we call a "morning line". We don't have (legal) bookmakers, our final odds are determined by the parimutual pool and it's distribution for each horse. The track and the government also scape a percentage of the "handle". the In last 25 years, the Kentucky Derby has almost always been won by a longshot, a horse better than 10-1 and usually from off the pace, (closer) too. Ofttimes very large odds. Favorites seem to fare very poorly in the Derby. I predict Smarty will be at 5-1 or less when the gate (barrier) opens. The 1 1/4 miles is further than most if not all of these horses have ever run, so distance ability is important. Unfortunately, we have bred for speed, not stamina in recent years, and Inbred good blood too much, so our horses are still fragile at 3 years old. Hope I have answered all the questions, ask whatever you like. I personally don't think Smarty Jones will even be in the minors. None of my U.S. cronies like him either. The old gent that taught me to handicap says Borrego is the best play for the money. I like Lion Heart, The Cliff's Edge and Borrego. I will box all the top Beyer figures in the exactas and trifectas, because that has cashed every recent year, usually gloriously. The Beyer figs are the numbers in the middle of the form. They rate a horse as to speed and ability, even adjusted for track and surface. They work very well, when used with the proper interpretations. There are special 3 year old factors, which make us think that Smarty Jones will "bounce". I know how to make them, and could get filthy rich punting with them in Australia. Too bad I'm too ************ old to emigrate, according to your law. (over 45) haha.

Regards, Glenn


[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 07:34 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 07:36 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 07:38 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 07:51 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 08:09 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 08:12 ]