20th April 2012, 08:00 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,494
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I'll give it a go but essentially its the inverse of the odds.
Your formula is : ( Market Odds/Rated Odds - 1 ) / Rated Odds
Lets assume your Market odds were $3 and your rated odds were $5.
The Market gives it a chance of 33% winning and 66% chance of losing You give it a 20% chance of winning and a 80% chance of losing.
So your rated odds of it losing are 80% = $1.25 and the market rates it as a 66% chance which is 1.51
Put those figures into your forumla :
(1.51/1.25-1)/1.25 = 4.832
Now to work that out into a forumla should be too hard.
(1/(1-(1/Market Odds))/(1/(1-1/Rated Odds ))- 1 ) / (1/(1-1/Rated Odds ))
Lets try that for the $3 and $5 ratings above:
= (1/(1-(1/3))/(1/(1-1/5 ))- 1 ) / (1/(1-1/5 ))
= (1/(1-(0.33))/(1/(1-0.20 ))- 1 ) / (1/(1-0.2 ))
=(1/(0.66)/(1/0.8)- 1 ) / (1/0.8)
=1.55/(1.25-1) / (1.25)
= 4.832
Looks good to me.
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