Thread: Anzac Day Greys
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Old 25th April 2012, 11:42 AM
moeee moeee is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raven
I will keep my strategy very simple. I will back the top rated dog for win IF an overlay price available.

You having a spell Mo?

I was thinking the exact same thing this morning.

But if it is an Underlay , there may well still be a betting opportunity.
You have to develop an ability to see the Big Picture.
If the picture comes out blurry , it means the race is not a betting proposition.

The MEADOWS Race 8

3 DIN'S ECHO $3.6
4 UNFINISHED $4.5
8 PARISETTE $6.0
5 JAYDE'S TURN $9.1
1 LUCKY CHOICE $11.7
6 BOWSTREET SENTRY $13.2
2 REBEL GIRL $29.7
7 EXCELLENT CHOICE $37.4

This Race is very open and very blurry.
The ONLY clear thing is that I am happy about the calculated Odds about the top selection.
If it starts Unders , then there is no other animal likely of starting an Overlay that I could Quinella with it.
So this race is Win Only or just watch.

RAVEN.

There is NO WAY that Malibu should be at shorter Odds than Ellie Bale.
If you wish to improve your Ratings , spend a little time on the race and see what it is that is causing Malibu to be on top.
I suggest perhaps you need to learn about Box Advantage.
If you haven't incorporated it into your Formula , perhaps you should consider it.

Meadows Winning Boxes for past 12 months

BOX 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 TOTAL
MEA525 194 159 130 113 87 114 86 100 983
MEA600 54 28 25 36 24 21 20 15 223
MEA725 6 5 6 3 3 3 4 6 36

http://www.grv.org.au/Statistics/Tr...nningBoxes.aspx

Plus RAVEN.
As you are experimenting you will come up with some WILD Prices , that are obviously wrong when compared to the starting Prices.
When you have an animal at extreme Odds compared to its starting Price , and it wins , try to find what it is that caused your formula to suggest it had Zero Chance.
And the same when you have something short and it starts Big Odds and fails accordingly.

WRONG ODDS are generally worse than no Odds at all.
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