I think NSW has it easier than some of the teams above it. They play the highlanders at home (good chance of 5pts) and the reds away (4pts).

The Stormers must play the crusaders and sharks, both away. It's likely they must win both and I doubt they will. Don't think the stormers will be in the top 4 come the semi's.

The chiefs must defend against the bulls (should win) and brumbies (toss up) at home. The chiefs definately have a much better chance of winning both than the stormers do, but I'd think NSW has it easier.

The sharks play the blues and stormers. They will probally have to pick up 10 points to beat NSW (nsw will probally get 9, but sharks need more due to F/A). I highly doubt the sharks will pick up 10, so unfortunately I don't give them much of a chance (time to start laying off that 150.00 future).

The crusaders play the hurricanes and stormers. A bit harder than what NSW has it, but could very well win both and stay in the 4.

I think the top 4 will be:
Brumbies
Crusaders
Chiefs (maybe stormers)
NSW

You're right Desi, this weekend might decide the top 4.