
27th April 2004, 02:09 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Perth
Posts: 29
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This is the formula I use. It might look a bit complicated but once you've used it a few times it's pretty easy.
Predicting the number of losing runs of a given length, against a given strike rate:
X = N x S^2 x (1 - S)^L,
where
X = number of losing runs of length L
N = number of results
S = strike rate
^ = to the power of
L = length of losing run you wish to investigate.
nb. S is in decimal format eg. s/r of 75% would be 0.75
I find if you make N 10,000 it's pretty accurate.
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