6th May 2012, 04:47 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 268
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Try Try Again
Hi Lord G,
I double my bet if the qualifying horse started 7,14 or 21 days ago. Logic being that it has started on Saturday class race previously rather than a country or midweek class.
After yesterday's races (betting all qualifiers i.e. not eliminating SA or Heavy or Slow tracks) the results are:-
One unit on all selections
Bank +92.45 units
POT % = 33.5%
Betting extra unit on qualifiers starting 7,14 or 21 days ago
Bank +164.20 units
POT % = 36.1%
Yesterday there was an increase in the bank of 3.6 units
|
Hi Try Try Again,
Good logic with regards to the idea of horses that have raced on a Saturday last start but this is logic that probably most punters would also look at which can quickly erode any value. An example of this is a system I am looking at currently, the last 4 years on all days and all meetings it has had 747 selections for a S/R of 41.5%, of this there were 458 selections who ran on Saturday last start for a 41% S/R and 19% POT. There were also 289 selections who did run on a Saturday last start for a 42% S/R and a 7% LOT.
Now these figures don't take into account days last start or day of the week but you can see how even with a higher S/R there was absolutely no value in those selections. A test on Saturday races has yielded basically the same S/R and P/L figures, not saying this will be the case with your system but it is something to consider, especially if you are doubling your bet based on this logic.
Cheers,
Matt.
|