25th May 2012, 08:40 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,433
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mattio
My thoughts were like most peoples in that overlays were the key to value and therefore profits when backing but I soon found that the market is a much better guide and I found that horses starting as "unders" had a better winning strike rate and lost less than those that would have been considered "overs" or value.
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Matt,
And this is the inherent flaw with overs unders betting / laying.
Ratings tell us what we know, fluctuations tell us what we don't in general.
One can definitely profit from overs betting, there's no argument about that, but perhaps there needs to be something incorporated into ratings which recalculates them by a factor given market information.
Because horses are not teams nor sportsmen, they are animals.
One can rate AFL or Tennis or Soccer and come up with definite odds and overlays, because in general, it is what it is.
With horses sometimes it is what it isn't!
All the stats in the world can't tell you stable opinion, or closed trial form, or negative medical issues. |