26th May 2012, 08:57 AM
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by woof43
Your rated 20% chance indeed needs to win 20% of the time, this in itself is very hard to measure, as it is very rare that you will get a large enough sample of exactly 20% rated chances to test a small deviation makes a large difference.
Also your rated 20% chances if you had a large enough sample would win 20% of races right thru all the odds ranges. ie if I had 100 of these .20 chances and they started at even money i'd expect them to win 20 races with a normal variance.
hopefully this is understood.
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So basically, a ratings system that has a predicted price of $5.00 should long-term have a strike rate of 20%. If it doesn't its impossible to get a correct overlay.
This is all new to me this area of punting, so if I understand the hard thing to predict would be the strike rate is 20% is on all bets if correct.
But if a punter was to bet only on the overlays, this might only have a 10% strike rate because the underlay bets are at 30% making an average of 20%.
In an ideal world if you could obtain $6.00 on every bet rated at $5.00 but often there will be a short $2.00 horse in the mix.
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