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Old 29th May 2012, 02:01 PM
beton beton is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
HI Beton,
Without the benefit of a humungous data engine at my knee..

Would you agree that when one picks up an old system that was working say 5 years ago, and it immediately produces a winner or 2 from a random meeting picked today(and tomorrow) using exactly the same 'rules', there is a reasonable chance that...

(a) it still has legs
(b) few others are following it


LG


Both with a big maybe. I would test it first of all, either by running it thru a data base or in light of no data base, I would test it on paper or live at minimum outlay. If it had legs and fell off the perch because it was overbet then it may still have legs. People get a lead into a system, have few wins and tell their friends which in turn affects the odds which in turn affects the viability of the system. When they start losing they move to next hot system and destroys that as well. A good system may work again if the selection method has a good strike rate or has quality picks. The biggest culprit between 5 years ago and now is computers and access to good ratings. A good rating service will have the winner in their top five, a good system has to be able to pick the top horse out of those 5 OR pick the winning horse that the ratings miss altogether. Most of the information that goes into the computer rating programs is the same, it is all historical data. It goes in and adds 1 plus 1 and comes out 2. A good system has to come out better than 2. Test your system with a small amount that you are comfortable with for a set amount. If you are not in front after 20 x $1 bets bin it. If you are in front play with the winnings and monitor your losses. Beton
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