I tested a couple ratings out that I made on 10 races and there was 20 lay selections for 1 place in the first 4 of the market that were not in the top 50% of my ratings and the average price was $6.50.

I know the chance of getting that sorta s/r every 20 bets wouldn't happen but if it was anywhere near that with that average price, what would be the best way to bet them?

How many accidents would it take to finish in the red at an average price of $6.50 over 20 lay bets for the win or for the place if that was your bet choice?

What sorta profit would you be looking at if you was lucky enough to only have 1 accident over 20 lay bets at an average price of $6.50 for not winning or not placing if that was your bet type?

Does it all come down to your bet being matched and what does that mean exactly? does that mean I may possibly only end up having like 15 actual bets out of the 20?

Would you be better off lay betting to not place at all or just to not win if s/r remained anywhere near that at those prices?