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Old 7th June 2012, 01:14 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 451
Default Acceptable Lay Stats

Hi All,

I've been backtesting a lay method using my ratings as the mechanism helping me decide when to lay the favourite due to the race being open in the view of my ratings.

I'm just interested in what are acceptable stats for a lay method? I've only back tested for a week so far as I started last night but here's what i've got so far:

MAX LIABILITY & NO STOP LOSS (74 bets)
77.03% SR
10.70% POT

NO MAX LIABILITY & NO STOP LOSS (74 bets)
77.03% SR
8.95% POT

MAX LIABILITY & STOP LOSS (62 bets)
82.26% SR
17.10% POT

NO MAX LIABILITY & STOP LOSS (62 bets)
82.26% SR
16.18% POT

Obviously there isn't enough data to say whether its a winner yet or not but i'm just curious what makes a lay system acceptable? Definitely seems like managing the risk with a max liability and stop loss helps the returns. There has only been 1 occurance of 2 losses in a row so far and this would've been stopped due to the stop loss. So it may even be more profitable with some sort of recovery built in as well maybe?

Anyhow just looking for some comments on lay systems basically, if the backtesting keeps looking decent i might start live betting it with a bot with small amounts of money.

Cheers
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