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Old 7th June 2012, 04:45 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 451
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Hi Angry Pixie,

The way i'm doing it is only laying 1 horse per race in selected races so some days there can be up to 10 or so selections, other days 1, 2 or 3. The recovery part was just an idea but one I don't really like, as you can read anywhere martingale type systems only work if you have a never ending bank account (according to statistics).

For the Max Liability POT i've calculated it as:

Profit / Total Liability to date

So for instance 5 lays:

Loss @ $3.50 odds - $10 Liability - $10 loss
Win @ $2.50 odds - $10 Liability - $6.67 Profit
Win @ $4.90 odds - $10 Liability - $2.56 Profit
Win @ $3.10 odds - $10 Liability - $4.76 Profit
Win @ $5.30 odds - $10 Liaiblity - $2.33 Profit

This would be a $6.32 Profit over $50 Liaibility, hence 12.64% POT, is this the correct way of doing it?

In terms of no max liability i've simply calculated based on $10 stakes so for the above example.

Loss @ $3.50 odds - $25 Liability - $25.00 loss
Win @ $2.50 odds - $15 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $4.90 odds - $39 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $3.10 odds - $21 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $5.30 odds - $43 Liaiblity - $10.00 Profit

This would be a $15.00 Profit over $143 Liability, hence 10.49% POT, is this correct?

I've done a little more testing, best result is still the Max Liability & Stop Loss option:

88 bets:
82.95% SR
16.87% POT
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