7th June 2012, 05:00 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 225
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by evajb001
Hi Angry Pixie,
The way i'm doing it is only laying 1 horse per race in selected races so some days there can be up to 10 or so selections, other days 1, 2 or 3. The recovery part was just an idea but one I don't really like, as you can read anywhere martingale type systems only work if you have a never ending bank account (according to statistics).
For the Max Liability POT i've calculated it as:
Profit / Total Liability to date
So for instance 5 lays:
Loss @ $3.50 odds - $10 Liability - $10 loss
Win @ $2.50 odds - $10 Liability - $6.67 Profit
Win @ $4.90 odds - $10 Liability - $2.56 Profit
Win @ $3.10 odds - $10 Liability - $4.76 Profit
Win @ $5.30 odds - $10 Liaiblity - $2.33 Profit
This would be a $6.32 Profit over $50 Liaibility, hence 12.64% POT, is this the correct way of doing it?
In terms of no max liability i've simply calculated based on $10 stakes so for the above example.
Loss @ $3.50 odds - $25 Liability - $25.00 loss
Win @ $2.50 odds - $15 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $4.90 odds - $39 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $3.10 odds - $21 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $5.30 odds - $43 Liaiblity - $10.00 Profit
This would be a $15.00 Profit over $143 Liability, hence 10.49% POT, is this correct?
I've done a little more testing, best result is still the Max Liability & Stop Loss option:
88 bets:
82.95% SR
16.87% POT
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Some very sound advice by Pixie there. Stop / Loss isn't my cup of tea either.
I always calculate profit as a percentage of your total 'hold'. In your 2nd example, the $10 flat stake lays, your total hold is $50 obviously. Just remember to account for the 6.5% comission, so your profit was $9.35 x 4 less $25, $12.40 profit on $50 hold, thus 24.8%.
My preferred method of staking is simply 2 lay bets on each selection; one to Liability at SP and one to flat stake at available lay price at a pre-determined time, say -5 sec mark.
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