13th June 2012, 05:04 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 102
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gunny72
I don't even go along with the over bet argument.
I believe that the betting market generally provides a very accurate summary of each horse's chance in a race, and horses will win in proportion to these prices. All the ratings, systems, opinions etc that Barny mentions factor in most of the available knowledge about a race and are used by punters to produce these prices. What makes it difficult for punters is the take so in the main punters will lose.
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I have to agree with gunny72. I haven't found a more accurate rater of each runners chance than the market formed by Joe Public. They almost have it down to 'an exact science'.
There are basic human expectations at play on supposed outcomes that the public still fumbles within. This creates an opportunity to profit where they (Joe Public) almost get it right.
Put simply... At what point in price does ones confidence in the favourite waiver between high and low? If it is at a short price we are fairly confident the public has identified the winner for us. When it is priced at, say, $4.00, are we as confident to back it or is this a point where we might chance our luck on the 2nd favourite instead? (Thereby up-setting the balance of true odds)
A look at odds increments for each of the top 5 favourites will identify the tipping point at which Joe Public starts to twitch! When you find that increment you can exploit the mistake.
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