18th June 2012, 06:49 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
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BELOW is a practical example of what I mean, completely missed in the market in a weak race over 1600 (up by 400m) in Adelaide
5may12 Morphetville 1600m $80k
DONNA CATIVVA 2f 4 0-0-1 34s74 B 2 54 kg
10th Dec 2011 Sht 1/2 hd, nk 3rd Flem 2yo plate 1000(54.5kg),
21st Dec 2011 3-3/4 lgth 4th Sand 1200 RST0, -
SPELL
12th April 2012 6 len7th Ballarat 2yo fillies maiden (slowly away) 1000m,
29th April 2012 3-1/4 lgth 4th Sale 2yofillies mdn 1200m
Then ..... DRUM ROLL ....WON by 4 lengths @ $12.20 …. 4 lengths !!!!!
and it gets better ..... This horse was considered good enough to run in the Group 1 TJ Smith recently, but it didn't show up in the form did it??? Or did it ..... it was up 400m from it's second run to it's 3rd run.
Had it failed due to bad luck at it's 3rd run, it would have been "write your own ticket" odds at it's next start. You're getting massive odds for a decent horse coz' it's form is "partially" (I say partially 'coz the trainer gave us a clue by running at at Headquarters and putting it up 400m) hidden !!!!
Maybe it's easier to find a decent horse and trust the trainer than rate a race.
I also laugh because a few years ago I backed Leica Larrikan at mammoth odds using this theory, and have seen a couple of posts on here lamenting the fact that it won at Flemington at huge odds and shouldn't have.
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