I like Barny's thinking. I have posted a similar thinking, in many ways over the last month here only to hit the delete button instead of the send.

I can take the run of outs. Experience is a hard task master which is why I generally only bet by systems. But every so often, I might have abet on something I fancy.

Maybe it was a system horse that I thought was stiff or maybe it is a horse owned by friends of the family. But whatever that would not be more then three or four times a year and only pocket money.

------
Now, this is why I like Barny's thinking. I may be explaining this wrong or misunderstood him but what I think he is getting at is the direct opposite of what other say and that is to follow the crowd.

Barny's thinking is that every horse has a chance, some more, some less. Going away from the favourites gets you to where the value is.

I have been playing with a similar idea for awhile now. Sort of finding short price eg under $3 lays and forgetting about them and looking for qualifiers outside of them.

With the shorts in I was getting about 20% SR but the odds averaged about $2 to $3.50. Forgeting about the shorties, strangely my SR remained the same but at greater odds. I had some quick wins and some long outs eg 12 and 14 a few times but the winners were about the $5 to a maximum of $18'

The wheels seem to have fallen off because I have had a few long outs followed by a ( short ) $5 winner. I am now on a run of outs of 12 but my SR still is about the 20% because of a purple patch I hit where I had 6 winners out of 9 starters with the shortest $5 and a highest of $16.

But, Because my SR was consistent through this I knew and was prepared for some long runs of outs to balance up the 20 % SR.

eg 6 winners at 20% SR means that I should expect 24 losses before I hit another winner, if I did then I had to add another 4 losses to the expected tally.

The above probably sounds like rubbish, but at least its their money and I have not had to hit my kick since I started this looking outside the favourites.

Mind you, when I had that purple patch, I thought I had found the Holy Grail. Then you start to expect them to loose and they win but when you expect them to win you loose.

Now, they are just a number, and I enjoy it better that way.

Star